How to Use Our Horse Racing Picks & Handicapping Tools

Betting News publishes free horse racing picks and in-depth handicapping data for every race at the main tracks in the US and Canada. This guide explains how to read our AI-generated picks and win/place/show probabilities, and how to use our track bias, jockey analysis, and trainer analysis tools to handicap races yourself.

New here? Start with today's free horse racing picks, or browse the full schedule on our races page.

How Our AI Horse Racing Picks Work

For every race, our artificial intelligence model compares each horse in the field with thousands of past races at the same track. It weighs dozens of data points, including speed, pace, class, running style, jockey and trainer form, and odds movement, to estimate how often horses with a similar profile have won, placed, or shown.

Those estimates become the Win %, Place %, and Show % shown for every horse. Our picks then combine two things:

  • Probability: how likely the horse is to finish in the top spots.
  • Value: whether the horse's current odds pay more than its probability suggests they should.

Value is where the edge lies in pari-mutuel betting. A horse with a 25% chance of winning should pay around 3-1. If the tote board shows 6-1, that horse is an overlay and may be worth a bet even if it isn't the favorite. Keep in mind that probabilities are estimates, not guarantees, and even the strongest picks lose regularly.

Reading a Race Page

Each race page, such as those listed under Today's Races, includes an entry list, live odds, our probabilities, and a set of comparison graphs.

Entry List

The entry list shows every horse in the race. Scratched horses are crossed out and greyed out. For each horse, you'll find:

  • Its own performance statistics, gender, weight carried, total earnings, and recent finishing positions
  • Its current odds and morning line odds
  • Our AI's Win, Place, and Show probabilities
  • Jockey and trainer statistics for the season: starts, win percentage, and in-the-money percentage (top-three finishes)
  • A button to hide or show the horse in the comparison graphs

Don't skip the second line of statistics. It shows the same numbers for today's specific race type only, such as a dirt sprint or a turf route. Many horses, jockeys, and trainers are specialists, and a jockey with a modest overall win rate may be excellent at today's distance and surface. To dig deeper, open the full profile in our jockey analysis tool or trainer analysis tool.

Odds vs. Morning Line

Comparing the morning line with the current odds shows you which horses the betting public, including big bettors, is backing. A horse whose odds drop sharply from its morning line is attracting money. One drifting out is being ignored.

Our AI goes further and tracks odds movement throughout the betting window, not just against the morning line, and factors it into the probabilities. Comparing live odds with our Win % is the quickest way to spot value: when a horse's odds are much higher than its probability implies, it may be underbet.

Race Comparison Graphs

Every race includes three graphs for comparing the whole field visually. They work best used together. You can remove horses you've ruled out from any graph to focus on the real contenders.

Figures Graph

The figures graph compares every horse on three numbers:

  • Class: the quality of horses it has recently faced and how well it fared against them.
  • Speed: its final times in recent races, adjusted for distance, surface condition, and track variant.
  • Pace: how fast it ran to the second point of call, about two-thirds of the way through the race, adjusted the same way. It tells you how quickly a horse typically runs early.

Winning Profiles Graph

Our AI studies thousands of races at the track to build a template of what winners there usually look like, then plots today's runners against it. Horses in the upper-right quadrant fit the winning profile best. If too many horses crowd that corner, remove the weaker ones to see which runners truly stand out.

Because winning profiles differ from track to track, this graph pairs naturally with our track bias tool.

Profile Comparison Graph

This graph brings every core part of a horse's profile into one view, so you can compare two or more contenders side by side:

  • Early Pace: how fast the horse has left the gate in recent races.
  • Pace: how fast it has run to the second point of call.
  • Speed Rating: its final times, adjusted for race conditions.
  • Leading Ability: how often it races near the front early rather than a few lengths back.
  • Closing Ability: how often it finishes strongly, gaining ground and positions in the stretch.
  • Class: the quality of its recent competition and how it performed against it.

Use it to build a picture of how the race should unfold. A field full of horses with strong leading ability suggests a fast early pace, which tends to set the race up for closers.

Track Bias Tool

Some tracks consistently favor early speed, others favor closers, and the bias often changes with surface and distance. Our track bias tool lets you pick any track, surface, and distance and see how winners have actually run there:

  • Speed Bias: historical win percentage by speed ranking, from fastest to slowest horse.
  • Pace Bias: historical win percentage by running style, from leaders to closers.
  • Win % by Speed and Pace: both combined in one view.

The speed and pace graphs can be shown by category or as a cumulative view. For example, check the track bias for one-mile dirt races at Churchill Downs before handicapping a mile race there. If leaders win far more often than their share of starters, upgrade the horses with strong early pace.

Jockey Analysis Tool

Overall win percentages hide a lot. Most jockeys are specialists, and a rider with average numbers overall may excel on turf, on off tracks, or from inside posts. Our jockey analysis tool lets you filter jockey stats by:

  • Track
  • Surface (dirt or turf)
  • Track condition, such as fast, muddy, sloppy, firm, or soft
  • Distance, from 5 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles and over
  • Race type: maiden, claiming, allowance, or stakes
  • Post position (available once you've selected a track)

Each jockey receives a rating from Great to Bad for the conditions you select, based on how often they've finished in the top three in similar races. Click any name to open a full profile with ratings across every filter. For example, see the Irad Ortiz Jr. jockey profile for how even a leading rider's ratings vary by post position.

Trainer Analysis Tool

Trainers specialize too. Some excel with first-time starters, others with horses moving up in class or switching from dirt to turf. Our trainer analysis tool uses the same filters as the jockey tool, so you can see which trainers win in today's exact conditions. Click any trainer's name to view their full profile.

Putting It All Together: A Quick Handicapping Routine

  1. Start with our picks. Open the race from today's picks and note the horses with the highest Win % and those our AI flags as value.
  2. Check the track bias. Use the track bias tool for today's surface and distance to see whether speed or closers have the edge.
  3. Map the pace. Use the profile comparison graph to judge whether the early pace will be fast or slow, and which horses it should help.
  4. Check the riders and trainers. Look at the second line of stats in the entry list, then open the jockey and trainer profiles for any contender with a notable edge or weakness in today's conditions.
  5. Compare with the odds. Shortly before post time, compare live odds with our probabilities and look for horses paying more than they should.

New to horse racing betting? Our horse racing betting guide covers bet types, how pari-mutuel odds work, and handicapping basics. When you're ready to bet, compare the best horse racing betting sites.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are Betting News horse racing picks free?

Yes. We publish free picks and AI probabilities for races at the main US and Canadian tracks every racing day on our horse racing picks page.

How are the Win, Place, and Show percentages calculated?

Our AI compares each horse's profile, including speed, pace, class, running style, connections, and odds movement, with thousands of past races at the same track, and estimates how often similar horses have won, placed, or shown.

What does the Great/Good/Avg/Poor/Bad rating mean?

It rates how often a jockey or trainer has finished in the top three under the conditions you selected in the jockey or trainer tool, compared with their peers.

What is track bias in horse racing?

Track bias is a track's tendency to favor certain horses, such as early leaders, closers, or inside posts, on a given surface and distance. Our track bias tool shows these tendencies using historical results.

Can your picks guarantee a win?

No. Horse racing is unpredictable, and no pick or probability can guarantee a result. Use our tools to make better-informed decisions, bet only what you can afford to lose, and visit our responsible gaming page if you need support.