Belmont Stake Betting and Picks Information

The 2021 Belmont returns to the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown after being the final leg in 2020. The race usually carries a lot of hype as dreams of a Triple Crown winner are alive and well. If the Derby winner falters here, the dream is over and the Belmont Stakes takes on a different meaning.

The Undercard

Like so many racing venues, Belmont Park stacks many of its best racing around the Belmont Stakes leading to a 2 day racing extravaganza. The Friday before the big race features 5 different stakes races including 3 grade 2 races and 1 grade 3 race.

Although ungraded, the Tremont on Friday is a very worthwhile event for horseplayers as it kicks off the New York two year old stakes season that will hit a fever pitch at Saratoga.

Not to be outdone, the Saturday undercard leading into the Belmont is often a fan-favorite. The day features 8 stakes including 7 grade 1 events. Among the highlights are the Acorn, the Metropolitan Handicap (Met Mile), the Jaipur, the Ogden Phipps, and the Woody Stephens.

While many will tune into the Belmont Stakes the entire weekend of racing is a truly star-studded affair.

The Main Event

The Belmont Stakes is the featured event. Even when there is no Triple Crown the event can have an impact on the legacy of a horse, particularly in the breeding market.

The Belmont is the longest race in the Triple Crown series being run at a mile and a half or 12 furlongs. It is run over Belmont’s expansive oval which is the biggest in the country. The size of the track makes for wide sweeping turns that can have a major impact on horses and jockeys who are not familiar with it.

The Belmont is also a challenging race because the surface has a much higher concentration of sand in the dirt mixture. The unique dirt has earned the track the nickname “Big Sandy.” This makes the surface deeper and far more tiring on horses. While that would seem to favor closers it can often have the exact opposite effect and lead to most winners being on or near the pace.

Trends in the Belmont

• Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert are tied for first among active trainers with 3 Belmont Stakes victories. Baffert will not be allowed to enter horses this year due to Medina Spirit’s possible positive in the Kentucky Derby.
• John Velazquez, Joel Rosario, and Mike Smith are the only active jockeys with multiple Belmont victories.
• Since 2012 only Mike Smith and Victor Espinoza have won the Belmont as shippers. Every other winning jockey has had at least 700 starts over the track according to the Daily Horse Picks Jockey Analysis tool.

Betting the Belmont

The Belmont has been the most erratic race from a form perspective with the last 10 editions producing everything from American Pharoah at 3-5 to Ruler on Ice who won at 24-1. In that time period 6 of the 10 winners have been at prices of 10-1 or higher.

When the favorite wins the value has been in the Trifecta. For example, American Pharoah paid only $3.50 to win. The same amount of money on the trifecta led to a payout of $219.

When longshots win the race, the vertical exotics are massive, but the challenge of finding a longshot plus getting the other positions is daunting. Players who feel a longshot has the best chance of winning may be more inclined to play straight win wagers and exactas.

Wagering Menu

The wagering menu for the Belmont will be familiar to those who bet the Derby. It includes a number of different single horse bets as well as horizontal and vertical exoitcs.

Single Horse Bets

The allure of these bets is that you only have to be right about one horse in one race. These arethe least difficult wagers to cash, but also produce the lowest payouts.

Vertical Exotic Wagers

For those looking for a bit more of a challenge there are a number of vertical exotics that are offered. These bets require you to select the finishing position of multiple horses in the race. They are significantly more challenging than single horse bets because while the best horse may win, the second best horse may not end up running second. Nevertheless they can offer a lot of reward if you hit them. These bets can sometimes provide additional value on your bet even if the heavy favorite wins.

*In 2020 the Kentucky Derby reduced the minimum wager from $1 to $0.10. The average payout reflects the $1 payouts divided by 10.

When it comes to these vertical exotics, many people use a “box” which means you pick the horses and they can come in any order. While this does provide more coverage, it is important to know that the bettor still pays for every combination in the box. For example, a $1 exacta box with 2 horses has two combinations (1-2 and 2-1) which would cost $2 or $1 for each way the horses can finish on the ticket. A three horse $1 exacta box would cost $6 because you would need to cover all possible combinations of 1-2, 2-1, 1-3, 3-1, 2-3, and 3-2. The advantage to using more horses than placings is that in the ticket above the #3 horse can finish off the board and the player can still win if the 1 and 2 finish first and second. The disadvantage is that only one ticket can be a winner so the more tickets that are covered, the more money a player is taking off the table when they do have a winning opinion.

Horizontal Exotic Wagers

These wagers span over multiple races. The advantage to these bets is that you only have to pick the winner, but the complication of selecting those winners in multiple races is what makes these wagers more difficult. These bets will be listed as daily doubles or pick x, where x is the number of legs you have to get right. For example, a pick 3 would require you to pick 3 straight winners. For players new to the game these wagers can be daunting because it requires handicapping more than one race. While most people are focused on the Derby and would prefer the single race bets, there is one very popular horizontal bet that can be a great action bet for someone looking to stretch their money over the two day racing event.

The Oaks-Derby Double is a bet with a $1 minimum and requires that a bettor place the bet prior to the running of the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. The player selects the horse they think will win the Oaks and the horse they think will win the Derby. Players can pick multiple horses in each leg (race of the bet). For example, four horses in the Oaks plus two in the Derby would cost $8 (4x2x$1).

Daily Horse Picks is Here to Help

The Derby can be overwhelming for someone new to the sport. The diverse number of wageringoptions available is extensive. Nevertheless the Derby is one of the best wagering opportunities in the racing calendar. Some bettors like to choose horses based on their favorite name or the jockey wearing the colors they like the best. These are all perfectly reasonable ways to select horses if you’re just looking to have a fun day at a Derby party. However, if you’re looking for an edge and truly want to handicap the entries in the race, Daily Horse Picks offers a number of products that can help you make your picks.

In 2020 Authentic upset Tiz The Law paying $18.80 for every $2 wagered. Players using Daily Horse Picks speed and pace analysis tool would have noticed that horses with speed designations of “Fast” or “Fastest” and pace designations of “Leader” all won at a 29% clip while horses with a pace designation of “Leads” won at only 14% at Churchill Downs. Authentic was designated by DHP as a “Fast/Leader” while Tiz The Law was listed as a “Fastest/Leads”. For DHP users this tool could have tipped them off to a potential upset and much better value as Tiz The Law would have paid $3.40 on the same $2 bet if he would have won. While horse racing is an unpredictable sport the advanced artificial intelligence handicapping of DHP can be a huge asset to helping you make make on the first Saturday in May.

For access to the Daily Horse Picks speed and pace analysis tool as well as expert picks, win/place/show percentages, speed/class/pace ratings and more visit https://www.dailyhorsepicks.com/buy

If you are looking to maximize your use of the Daily Horse Picks tools, a helpful tip is to purchase the weekly package for $9.99 on Monday or Tuesday of Derby week. Churchill Downswill be running on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday prior to the Derby on Saturday. This can be a great opportunity for you to follow along with the results and practice making different selections with the DHP tools. By doing this you have the opportunity to see which variables you want to prioritize when creating your Derby tickets.